Declining Economic Importance of The Strait of Malacca & Singapore: Advantage Myanmar
How the old world-order in shipping & logistics can change and be better for the benefit of equitable prosperity in ASEAN? Analysis from Dr. Madhab Paul of MiTA.
The Declining Economic Importance - The Strait of Malacca, i.e., Singapore
The Strait of Malacca is a narrow stretch of water, about 930 km in length, between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra.
(At present) as the main shipping channel between the Indian and Pacific oceans, it is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. Wikipedia
Now the Question is how all these are going to change.
Dawei & The Natural Deep See Port Development Project in Dawei.
Dawei in Myanmar is the solution for a better world; Thailand initiated Dawei development project over a decade ago which got dragged wrongly and have been delayed.
Dawei and India, Myanmar & Thailand
How India can be in the driver's seat, along with Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia; thus making a New World-order in the region and positively impact rest of the world?
Let's not forget that India shares maritime border with Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia just near The Strait of Malacca. For easy reference, Sovereign Limits :
Dawei Deep Sea Port Project
The Catalyst of Better World, Peace & Equitable Development in ASEAN
Deep Sea Port development in Dawei (Myanmar) can reduce the Shipping hazards:
Piracy in the Strait of Malacca (and also the commission agents based in a city state);
The collision hazard in the narrow and shallow strait; as well as, restriction in the movements of modern Very Large Vessels & Container Carriers; and
The risks of reduce visibility due to the annual haze.
And can also cut short the economic importance of
"the Strait of Malacca, the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking major Asian economies such as India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea".
Which is consequently going to adversely affect Singapore’s port, financial center and a few who are heavily invested in the city state.
Dawei: How the economic importance and hence predominance of old world-order is going to change?
Technological Advances in Warfare, Shipping & Logistics
Important to note that with the present technological advances in warfare, shipping & logistics, Geo-strategic importance of Myanmar has increased many fold.
The Unknowns & Singapore
Titanic Moment - the sinking luxurious ship
And with the limitations of the Strait of Malacca (as well as, the reputation of Singapore's Governance System in Practice), many Experts argue that any further investments in Singapore will only be similar to putting money in the sinking luxurious ship.
Because, in Singapore (though advertised as most transparent, etc.), many Experts argue, there are many “unknown” ghosts below the Red Carpet.
The "Summit for Democracy" & USA
If anything, the "Summit for Democracy" could be an initial indicator of the acceptance of "the reality in Singapore” as well, and the emerging New World-order in the ASEAN region.
Disagree or agree,
the fact is:
from now on, Myanmar can and will influence peace & prosperity of the region and rest of the world.
India and rest of the world can only engage with “Myanmar & the People of Myanmar” to optimize the potential for the peace & prosperity of the region and rest of the world.
The BIG Q:
How fast India will act and cooperate?
It would be insightful to refer to what former Indian Prime Minister Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee talked about in 2002, almost twenty years ago.
Inaugural address by Prime Minister Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the First India-ASEAN Business Summit - October 17, 2002.
(Reference: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India)
October 17, 2002.
……….
India’s geographical proximity to ASEAN is often not grasped fully.
We have maritime borders with Thailand and Indonesia. Our Andaman and Nicobar Islands are very close to some ASEAN countries.
In recent years, with the expansion of ASEAN, we have moved even closer. We now share a land border of about 1600 kilometres with ASEAN in Myanmar.
Friends,
India and ASEAN have a historic opportunity today to promote this process to mutual benefit by exploiting the synergies between them.
Trade is the backbone of any economic relationship………….
Dawei & India-Myanmar-Thailand Economic Cooperation
Mutual economic cooperation - since then - has progressed a lot but no doubt very slowly without realizing a fraction of the true potential in the “India-Myanmar-Thailand Economic Cooperation” that can have significant impact on the prosperity & equitable development of region and beyond, establishing a New World-order.
Is the present Indian Leadership as visionary as the former Indian PM Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and willing to seize the opportunity like a Cheetah - quick and fast?
Hopefully yes. Most likely.
But, if not India, others will come in to join with Myanmar soon to develop Deep Sea Port Project, Related Facilities, and SEZ in Dawei.
Dawei: Can anything stop that happening?
Offcourse not.
But also, there is another alternative for China & Thailand - the Thai Canal Project- which will have far less economic benefit for Thailand & Myanmar, and may cause a possible great environmental damage.
“The Thai Canal, also known as Kra Canal or Kra Isthmus Canal, refers to proposals for a canal that would connect the Gulf of Thailand with the Andaman Sea.” - Wikipedia
Rather than Dawei, the Thai Canal could be the best alternative for China, as China may not like to keep all the eggs in one basket - Myanmar.
Coming Back To Singapore - the declining economic importance
This Thai Canal project - like Dawei - will also greatly reduce the Economic Importance of “The Strait of Malacca” and Singapore.
Point To Note
In the present “more” dynamic world, India may take proactive role to engage with Myanmar and develop Dawei just accros India.
Under any political circummstances, India’s present Leadership may not wait to let go the potential in the “economic cooperation with Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia” and the Dawei deep sea port project.
And, if it’s not feasible via. ASEAN, then India may explore possiblilities through another multilateral cooperation mechanism.
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Declining Economic Importance of The Strait of Malacca & Singapore: advantageMyanmar
How the old world-order in shipping & logistics will change and be better for the benefit of equitable prosperity in ASEAN? Analysis from Dr. Madhab Paul of MiTA.
About Author: Dr. Madhab Paul - the Generalist